Review 22.8
6-26 June 1997

Ehud Barak, whose Hebrew name means 'lightning', was overwhelmingly elected as leader of Israel's Labour Party last week - less than two years after first entering politics.

The retired General and former Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, achieved just over 50% of the eligible 167,000 Labour member votes cast against rivals which included Yossi Beilin, one of the prime architects of the Oslo peace accords; newcomer Shlomo Ben-Ami; and another former government minister, Efraim Sneh. Representing a new generation of leaders rising through the Israeli Labour Party ranks since the death of Yitzhak Rabin, Barak is seen very much as young, vibrant, and a winner by Labour voters, and consistently rates marginally higher than PM Benjamin Netanyahu in opinion polls.

A reassuring alternative for the Israeli public, the most recent poll has Barak at 45% compared to Netanyahu's 40% among Israel's Jewish voters. Coupled with this result, Barak can be assured that Israeli Arabs would overwhelmingly vote for him in an election.

Supportive of the peace process, Barak wrote recently in the New York Times that "The prerequisite for a stable Middle East is that we recognise the needs and sensitivities of our inevitable partners." And according to Barak, although initially sceptical, a Palestinian state may become part of that reality. He is also known to favour separation between Israelis and Palestinians, arguing that "separation is the only possible answer, [that will] minimise the human factor between the two peoples and allow for mutual cooperation on economic ventures."

Like Rabin, Barak also views terrorism as the greatest danger to peace, threatening both the economic and political relations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Arafat, he says, must do more. "He can arrest people, he can interrogate people, he can run investigations about the place where they hide their munitions, he can follow their exchanges of information, he can follow their movement, he can do what every other leader has done in the Middle East in order to fight terror."

A Barak-led Labour would be better able to forge the unity and strength lacking under the Peres interim leadership since their defeat last year. A new coherent strategy would be set in place to win the next election, due in the year 2000.

The target will be to repeat Rabin's strategy in 1992. The key, according to Barak, is not necessarily to cut into Likud's primary vote. But rather, the focus will be to shift the edges of the Likud vote, even by only 2%. Sephardim, Jews from Arab countries and North Africa, and Israel's growing political force voted largely for Netanyahu last year. Barak sees them as Likud's vulnerability. The 11% vote for the Sephardi Ben Ami is significant, and his future worth watching. As for the ultra-orthodox - the haredim - "We won't change them," he says, "but maybe we will dampen their enthusiasm to bring down any candidate who comes from the Left."

A Barak government would try to restart the peace process, although not through unilateral concessions. The trust that Barak believes has been broken down, will need to be regenerated. Most probably, when concessions occur, they would be on Israel's terms. Barak would not rule out options, thus preventing what he sees as a crucial mistake of Netanyahu - being forced to make concessions he had previously ruled out.

Barak believes this only encourages Arafat to escalate violence. Born in Israel, in the Mediterranean coastal kibbutz of Mishmar Hasharon in 1942 to Eastern European immigrant parents, Barak's home was almost destroyed by Iraqi artillery fire during Israel's war of independence in 1948. With such a close personal memory of the need for Israel's security, the 55-year old Barak became a career military officer. "If they would have gone just a few miles more, they could have cut Israel in two," he recalled.

An economics and engineering graduate, classical pianist and amateur philosopher, he entered politics directly into Yitzhak Rabin's Cabinet, taking the interior ministry. He was vaulted into the position of Foreign Minister after his mentor's assassination in November 1995. Before Rabin's death, the Prime Minister, Peres and Barak were the key decision makers in the Government.

Widely viewed as 'another Rabin', Barak has pursued the same security/peace package as the late Prime Minister, demonstrating an ability to combine Israel's security with diplomacy, economics and other non-military considerations.