Review 22.3
1 March- 21 March, 1997

Iran Eyes Asia

Iran should align itself with Asian nations rather than Europe ... Tehran has not exploited our Asian possibilities enough", argued Mohammad Javad Larinjani, deputy chairman of the Iranian Parliament's foreign relations committee, last month. The comments followed those of the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and leading candidate to succeed Iranian President Rafsanjani, Mr Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri, who recently advocated an "Asian tilt" for Iranian foreign policy.

Iran's push into Asia and the Pacific Rim and strategic planning from Central Asia to South East Asia represents a serious challenge to Australia, the United States and the region. As overwhelming evidence has emerged of Iran's complicity in international terrorism, in chemical, and nuclear weapons proliferation, its efforts to destroy the peace process and its undermining of stable regimes in the Middle East, diplomatic and economic avenues have closed to Tehran in the US, Middle East and Europe.

Increasingly isolated, Iran is now turning to Asia, wooing and blackmailing countries into opposing US sanctions and expanding bilateral ties. In the process, it has achieved significant gains with increased military cooperation with China and India, and warm bilateral relations with Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Iranian activities in South East Asia have already proved destabilising. Thailand and the Philippines, both non-Muslim and pro-Western, have felt the effect of Iranian subversion. Separatist terrorists in the south of each country receive Iranian support to escalate terrorist campaigns. Iranian-backed terrorists and intelligence cells are active in Indonesia, India, Malaysia and the Philippines, where international terrorist Ramzi Ahmed Yousef was arrested before he was able to implement a plan to place bombs aboard US civilian airliners in the Pacific.

While the Philippines has placated Iran, it now faces a certain future of further terrorist and separatist violence. In contrast, Thailand has imprisoned Iranian nationals caught operating there and has faced down retaliatory threats from Tehran. There can be no comparison as to which government's internal security is stronger today. Iran's Asian push is both an unwelcome source of regional conflict and instability, and a dangerous influence that will sprout its own roots in restive regional Muslim populations and Shiite minorities.

Netanyahu Delivers on Oslo

Despite the continued carping of his critics, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu defied threats from the country's right wing this week to turn over even more West Bank territory than initially demanded by the Palestinian Authority. The Israeli pull-out from a further 9% of the West Bank (twice the size of greater Tel Aviv) came despite strong Cabinet pressure (the 10 -7 vote was only marginally in Netanyahu's favour) and follows immediately on the Hebron withdrawal. Both withdrawals unambiguously reaffi rm Netanyahu's commitment to the Oslo peace accords.

As we argued in our last issue, the Netanyahu strategy continues to successfully deliver on the Oslo accord commitments of the previous Labour government while simultaneously, through concessions like building Jewish housing at Har Homa, diffusing and preventing a repeat of the right wing criticism and attacks that impeded the previous government.

Netanyahu argues that territorial withdrawals combined with approval of some settlements enables Israel to "retain valuable assets and also move forward on the peace process with the Palestinians".

The risks in Netanyahu's strategy are significant. The Eretz Yisrael Front and the National Religious Party (NRP) of the Likud coalition are threatening to bring down the government over the territorial withdrawals, leaving Netanyahu reliant on Labour Party support to approve the deal. Ariel Sharon, the Minister for Infrastructure, said this week that Netanyahu was "a danger to the State of Israel" with the prospect of more West Bank territory permanently closed off to settlement. The right is increasing ly fearful that in withdrawing from the B and C areas of the Oslo accords, the Netanyahu Government has also withdrawn the territorial impediments to a Palestinian State. Which leaves Netanyahu increasingly looking to realists like Joe Gutnick or Yitzhak Mordechai to help sell the concessions to a conservative constituency.

Israeli commentator Akiva Eldar argued in the left-wing Israeli daily Ha'aretz that Netanyahu's handover is "pure implementation of the script written by Yitzhak Rabin and Yossi Beilin. Shimon Peres did not manage to carry it out and the man who promised to be good for the Jews is giving the Palestinians what they lack".

Lambasted at home over territorial concessions, condemned abroad for the Har Homa development, few appear to appreciate Netanyahu's pursuit of delicately balanced competing realities - pursuing the peace process, while placating a right wing constituency and a chorus of 'shoot from the hip' European meddlers and international critics. Rightists claim that he has betrayed them. Arafat threatens that enough has not been delivered.

"We believe this decision is a demonstration of Israel's commitment to the peace process. The decision ... represents a serious expansion of Palestinian authority," said the US State Department. But while Palestinians in the West Bank celebrated the Israeli decision, Arafat condemned it. "This is a big deceit operation. There was no consultation with us. This is a violation of the agreement," he said. Which is probably the best line of the year.

Netanyahu hands over extra land to the Palestinians, placing his government on the line, and in return Arafat condemns him for breaching the accords because he unilaterally gave the Palestinians too much land.

Looks like Netanyahu won't get the credit he deserves this time either.