Review 21.18
11 November - 24 November 1996

Australia joins the SDI Club

A 10 kg anthrax warhead delivered by a ballistic missile, on a moderately windy day, has more deadly force than a 10 kiloton nuclear warhead, with lethality in excess of 80 km downwind. The proliferation of ballistic missiles and biological and chemical, if not nuclear weapons is frightening. In this light, the commitment by the Government to increased cooperation with the United States Ballistic Missile Defense Organisation, through Australia's Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO), one of the most advanced research bodies in Australia, represents a significant degree of foresight for the stability and defence not just of Australia but the entire Asia-Pacific.

Ballistic missile defence is one of the most misunderstood and distorted defence projects. Critics often describe it as expensive, foolish, aimless, and charge that it is some form of "arms buildup". In fact, ballistic missile defence systems currently under development represent the best hope yet for freedom against the currently unstoppable threat from such missiles.

The most effective deterrent is often the reinforcement in the mind of the enemy, that the attack may not succeed. As Australia rightly rejects the development of a nuclear, biological or chemical weapons capability, it cannot rely on the traditional mutually assured destruction model of deterrence. Indeed most countries cannot, nor would choose to do so, as the system is inherently unstable. The solution is to construct an active defence that can destroy an incoming missile attack.

The development of defences against ballistic missiles is one of a number of means to counter missile proliferation. The United States, Australia and many other countries are party to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and other agreements to prevent the proliferation of missile and non-conventional weapons technologies. While this is useful, nonetheless states like North Korea and China have shown their readiness to sell ballistic missiles and the means for their construction for many years.

Iran, Egypt, Syria and Libya are believed to have developed the capacity to build their own ballistic missiles and will be in a position to export the knowhow to other countries. The increasing proliferation of ballistic missile systems has not yet made substantial inroads into our region, yet this situation is unlikely to remain as benign indefinitely. North Korea is a willing and inexpensive supplier of SCUD-type ballistic missiles to anyone with the cash to buy them. Tokyo and Seoul face the threat of North Korean No Dong ballistic missiles daily, with a recent test to impress an Iranian delegation taking place near the Japanese coast. In much the same situation, Israel is at t he forefront of developing missile defences in concert with the US, as part of its strategy to counter the ballistic missiles possessed by Iran, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Libya. The fact remains that there is no effective defence against ballistic missiles currently deployed by any country. Peace has been maintained between the major powers on the basis of a balance of terror. The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty between the United States and Soviet Union, which remains in force with Russia and was recently updated with provision for development of theatre missile defences, was designed to maintain that balance. The Reagan Administration's Strategic Defense Initiative changed p erceptions.

Conceived as an all-encompassing umbrella against nuclear missile attack, SDI or Star Wars as it became popularly known, was supposed to be space-based, and thus theoretically by-passing the limits of the ABM treaty. Costs and the demise of the 'evil empire' put paid to the grander visions of SDI, yet its descendent, the Ballistic Missile Defense Organisation lives on. The scaled down objective of the Clinton Administration is the construction of a missile defence system based on theatre defence. Essentially this involves a scaled down SDI effort, aimed at producing ground-based missile systems capable of intercepting tactical and intermediate range ballistic missiles. The systems would not be able to intercept the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) which exist in the US, Russian and Chinese arsenals, and agreement reached between the US and Russia to allow the development of such limited systems may be signed soon.

Eventually Australia may face a threat from a ballistic missile and chemical, biological or nuclear armed foe. The Department of Defence maintains a watching brief on ballistic missile threats in the region, and currently has no plans to deploy advanced long-range air defence missiles. However, when, not if, the threat emerges the ADF must be able to deploy, maintain and operate such a system. Israel has benefited substantially from its involvement in the SDI program - it will fully deploy its Arrow ABM s ystem before the end of the decade.

Fortunately, Israel escaped the scourge of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons on its soil during the Gulf War. The Arrow system is the Israeli answer to any nation that would launch missiles against its territory, and represents a determination not to rely on luck or on elusive theoretical deterrents.

An Australian government should be able to defend its citizens when they are threatened. We should not be confused that balance of power politics, or mutually assured destruction is foolproof, or even works on a regional scale. Too many wars are begun from minor disputes, and limited to small territorial goals between regional countries. The Cold War was unique in its global aspects. These are lessons which must be learned by those who would apply its lessons to regional disputes. Australia's DSTO involvement in some testing of US missile equipment at Woomera hardly constitutes a costly exercise, but one which will see Australia benefit from technology sharing, and a better understanding of a future defensive system which could well become necessary for it to deploy.

The Strategic Defense Initiative is not a foolish dream for a "miracle weapon". SDI is a concerted program for the development of a means to reliably intercept ballistic missiles and their deadly warheads. The Australian Government is to be commended for its part in developing technologies that will unfortunately be needed for the defence of Australia's population in the future.